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09/01/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Danny Rocco has yet to picket outside NCAA headquarters in Indianapolis, but if the third Sunday in November goes like the last three years, don't doubt that he and the rest of the Liberty football team will start getting the signs ready.
Rocco and the Flames have felt snubbed on Selection Sunday when his Big South champions of the last three seasons have not gained at-large bids to the Football Championship Subdivision playoffs. They are 26-8 over the last three seasons, including 10-2 overall and 5-0 in the conference in 2008.
This year, the Flames won't have to keep their fingers crossed if they win the Big South title. As the FCS playoffs increase from 16 to 20 teams this season - the first expansion since the field grew from 12 to 16 teams in 1987 - the Big South champion will automatically qualify for the first time.
Liberty, led by quarterback and Big South Preseason Offensive Player of the Year Mike Brown, is favored to win the Big South title. Rocco, for one, says his Flames feel pressure to meet all the lofty expectations surrounding their team.
A lot will happen for Liberty before the field is selected and announced on Nov. 21, beginning with its season opener against St. Francis (Pa.) on Saturday in Lynchburg, Va.
In Five-a-Side - In the Huddle's monthly feature of "five questions, five answers" with an influential person in the FCS - Rocco looks forward to the season ahead and discusses the Big South's new automatic playoff bid.
Let's kick off:
TSN: Were there any questions that your team answered in the preseason that were particularly important?
DR: I think a number of things. One, we came into camp with our two most veteran offensive linemen (left tackle Justin Vargas and right guard Alex Stadler) out. They did not practice in the spring, they were both nursing injuries and surgeries and we were very hopeful that they would be able to get into camp and have productive camps, and they both have.
I'd say secondly the running back position is starting to solidify itself. It's definitely going to be a two- or three-man-job-by-committee with Korrey Davis and SirChauncey Holloway handling the majority of the work, and Chase Barnett certainly had an opportunity to show us what he could do.
Defensively, I'd probably just say our linebacking corps is pretty solid and two-deep, and we were hoping that we'd be able to feel that way as we got ready for the start of the season.
TSN: Conversely, what aspects of your team are you still trying to solidify?
DR: I would say that the thing that I'm still looking for is just a little more consistency on both sides of the ball. Most specifically offensively we are very explosive, but not as efficient in the passing game that I'd like to see us be. But we are very explosive.
Defensively, (there is) still the mindset of we've given up a few too many big chunks of yardage in the summer. That's a function of being able to defend the deep ball and keeping everything in front of us.
TSN: With the Big South getting an automatic playoff bid this year, what does that do to the competitiveness of conference teams?
DR: Yeah, I think it's going to do a lot. I mean, everybody has a definitive prize at the end in terms of what they're playing for, and they have control over that. I know in the past we've been fortunate enough to have won this championship three years in a row. Even the year we were 10-2 and ranked 14th in the country (2008), we weren't invited to a 16-team tournament. So that was a little frustrating. But here we are now this year knowing that the conference champ has an automatic berth. I think it's going to make each and every Saturday afternoon all that much more competitive. I think even when you're looking at games (involving) teams that have a chance to get in versus teams that don't have a chance to get in, those teams that don't have a chance to get in really have a lot to play for in terms of making a statement and maybe ruining the opportunity for those teams that are fighting for that automatic bid."
TSN: Can you break down the Big South race?
DR: I can. I think it's tricky for me to position teams in this league. I think, though, that there are a number of teams that have reasonable reason to believe that they will be competing for a conference championship. Obviously, Stony Brook beat Liberty last year. Last year, Charleston Southern beat Stony Brook and Coastal (Carolina) and played Liberty to a really close game. Coastal's got a lot of guys coming back and a lot of talent. And three years ago they kind of had their run in this league. Gardner-Webb has an awful lot of defensive talent back and skill on offense - they're just breaking in a new quarterback. VMI has an entire defense that's back, and they were good on defense as the year went on last year. They're breaking in a brand new system of offense, which could bear fruit for them and keep them in this hunt. And then Presbyterian's the one team that's kind of on the outside looking in, looking for their first win. They did not get a win last year, but they also know that they've been very competitive in almost all the games and will have a definite opportunity to play spoiler as we get into competition and then to conference play.
TSN: Considering how close your team has come to the playoffs in recent years, would anything less than making the playoffs this year be unsatisfactory to you?
DR: I would say that it's probably a fair thing for you to say. I don't know if I'll say that. But what I think that I have done and that I will continue to do is, as you look at goals for your program I don't care what level you're at - the National Football League, the SEC, the ACC, the Big South - I think the first goal always has to be to win your conference championship. We all have aspirations to be a nationally prominent program and compete for a national championship and do all those things. But first and foremost you have to win your conference championship.
I've been very consistent since the first year that I got here in saying that my primary goal is to win the Big South Conference championship. So in theory I don't need to change my rhetoric, I don't need to change my philosophy or my line of thinking here because the automatic bid's in place. All I need to do is continue doing what we've been doing and focus on that conference championship.
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The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.
While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.
For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.
1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.
2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.
How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.
Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.
Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.
How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).
Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.
Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.
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